Archive for category COVID-19

Upconverting Baby Wipes

As other folks have discovered, it’s straightforward to convert soft, soothing baby wipes into toxic sanitizing wipes by pouring harsh chemicals down the hatch:

AmazonBasics Baby Wipes
AmazonBasics Baby Wipes

Ending up with the proper dilution, though, requires knowing how much liquid the wipes already have, so you can account for it in whatever recipe you’re following.

Stand back, I’m going to use arithmetic!

Gut a new package of wipes: 552 g total weight, with 80 wet wipes weighing 536 g, so the packaging amounts to 15.5 g and each wet wipe weighs 6.7 g.

Hang five wipes in the breeze for a few hours to find they weigh 9.2 g. They’re still slippery, because of all the aloe & Vitamin E & whatever else Amazon specifies for the mix, but they’re dry. One dry wipe weighs 1.8 g, so all 80 weigh 150 g.

The block o’ wet wipes holds 536 – 150 = 390 g = 390 ml of water.

Should you want a 70% (by volume) isopropyl alcohol solution, pour 0.7/0.3 × 390 ml = 910 ml of 99% alcohol into the package and let it settle for a while. Each wipe will emerge dripping wet, but that’s not entirely a Bad Thing. Perhaps it’d be a good idea to start by letting the block dry out for a while, re-weigh, then calculate the alcohol dose from the reduced amount of water.

Bleach dilutions for sanitation seem wildly varied, but the jug of 8.25% sodium hypochlorite on the shelf says 1/2 cup to a gallon, a 1:32 volume ratio. Starting with 390 ml of water-like substance in the package, pour 12 ml of bleach into the hatch, let things settle, then squish it around for good measure.

None of the dosages seem particularly critical, given the slapdash way everybody applies wipes.

You should, of course, conspicuously mark the packages, so as not to apply toxic wipes to sensitive parts of you or your baby …

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COVID-19: Elephant Path Prediction

We now have enough statistics from the USA to draw some useful graphs, so click the Logarithmic options to make the charts comprehensible:

COVID-19 - USA Total Cases and Total Deaths - 2020-03-25
COVID-19 – USA Total Cases and Total Deaths – 2020-03-25

The penciled lines give an eyeballometric fit, but it’s pretty obvious the USA is now dealing with purely exponential infection rates.

Total Cases, which is the patients tested = people already in the medical system, is growing by a factor of ten every eight days. By next weekend, the USA will have one million Total Cases: average it to 112,000 new cases, every day, over the next eight days.

Which may not happen, if only because we may not have the intake / testing / recording capacity for that number of patients and maybe, just maybe, Social Distancing will have an effect. I expect the Total Cases line bend downward slightly during the week, but it won’t be anywhere near horizontal. Obviously, the extrapolation fails completely within the next 24 days, because we lack a factor of 1000 more people to infect.

Total Deaths still equals Total Cases with a delay of fourteen days. By next weekend, the USA will have 10,000 Total Deaths: ramping up to average 1120 new deaths, every day, over the next eight days.

The 9,000 patients who will die in the next week are already in the medical system (because you take about two weeks to die) and, at least in downstate NY, have essentially filled all available hospital beds; they’re getting the best care possible from the medical establishment.

The next 900,000 cases, appearing “suddenly” during the next eight days, have nowhere to go; doubling hospital capacity and converting every flat surface into a mass ward are worthwhile goals, but they’re a linear solution to an exponential problem.

Not every new case becomes a patient, but in the USA we seem to be testing only folks with obvious COVID-19 symptoms, so all the optimistic hospitalization estimates of 10% are off the table and 50% seems more believable. Pick any percentage you like.

Eight days from now, the rate will ramp toward 10,000 deaths per day, to reach 100,000 Total Deaths in sixteen days, again, as an average.

Nearly everybody will survive this pandemic, because the overall death rate seems to be a few percent. For those of us in the Boomer-and-up generations, (theme: Aqualung) well, this may be our contribution to solving the Social Security & Medicare budget problems.

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COVID-19: Elephant Sighting

As far as this engineer can tell, here’s about all you need to know about the COVID-19 pandemic:

Total Deaths = Total Cases recorded two weeks earlier

This also works forward in time: given the total number of cases “today”, I (and you) can predict the total number of deaths in two weeks, give or take a few days.

Run the numbers for Italy, because it has a relatively long timeline and trustworthy data:

  • 2020-03-01: 1694 cases → 2020-03-15: 1809 deaths
  • 2020-03-02: 2036 cases → 2020-03-16: 2158 deaths
  • 2020-03-03: 2502 cases → 2020-03-17: 2503 deaths

As the numbers become difficult to comprehend, the time difference slows to 16 days instead of 14:

  • 2020-03-06: 4636 cases → 2020-03-22: 4825 deaths
  • 2020-03-07: 5883 cases → 2020-03-23: 6077 deaths

On 2020-03-23, Italy had 63,927 confirmed cases. Prediction: Easter will not be celebrated in the usual manner.

Consider the data for the US, also in March 2020:

  • 2020-03-05: 175 cases → 2020-03-19: 174 deaths
  • 2020-03-06: 252 cases → 2020-03-20: 229 deaths
  • 2020-03-07: 353 cases → 2020-03-21: 292 deaths

Pop quiz: Given that the US has 32,761 total cases as of today (2020-03-22), estimate the total deaths in two weeks.

New York State will have similar statistics, although it’s too soon to draw conclusions from today’s 20,875 confirmed cases.

In addition to the Wikipedia articles linked above, you may find these sites useful:

Exhaustive tracking and mapping from Johns Hopkins (the GUID gets to reach the JHU data): https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Comprehensive COVID-19 tracking, with logarithmic graph scales: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

More raw data: https://virusncov.com/

CDC National cases, with a per-day graph down the page: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

New York State COVID-19 info: https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/home

Perhaps more useful for me than you, but the Dutchess County information: https://www.dutchessny.gov/Departments/DBCH/2019-Novel-Coronavirus.htm

The current recommendation: remain home unless and until you develop COVID-19 symptoms requiring urgent medical attention. Should that happen to me, I fully expect there will be no medical attention to be found and, certainly, all available medical equipment will be oversubscribed.

Speaking strictly as an Olde Farte looking at the data, the future looks downright grim.

On the upside, it’s amazing how little an order to remain home changed my daily routine: so many projects, so little time.

Memo to Self: Wash your hands!

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