COVID-19: Elephant Sighting

As far as this engineer can tell, here’s about all you need to know about the COVID-19 pandemic:

Total Deaths = Total Cases recorded two weeks earlier

This also works forward in time: given the total number of cases “today”, I (and you) can predict the total number of deaths in two weeks, give or take a few days.

Run the numbers for Italy, because it has a relatively long timeline and trustworthy data:

  • 2020-03-01: 1694 cases → 2020-03-15: 1809 deaths
  • 2020-03-02: 2036 cases → 2020-03-16: 2158 deaths
  • 2020-03-03: 2502 cases → 2020-03-17: 2503 deaths

As the numbers become difficult to comprehend, the time difference slows to 16 days instead of 14:

  • 2020-03-06: 4636 cases → 2020-03-22: 4825 deaths
  • 2020-03-07: 5883 cases → 2020-03-23: 6077 deaths

On 2020-03-23, Italy had 63,927 confirmed cases. Prediction: Easter will not be celebrated in the usual manner.

Consider the data for the US, also in March 2020:

  • 2020-03-05: 175 cases → 2020-03-19: 174 deaths
  • 2020-03-06: 252 cases → 2020-03-20: 229 deaths
  • 2020-03-07: 353 cases → 2020-03-21: 292 deaths

Pop quiz: Given that the US has 32,761 total cases as of today (2020-03-22), estimate the total deaths in two weeks.

New York State will have similar statistics, although it’s too soon to draw conclusions from today’s 20,875 confirmed cases.

In addition to the Wikipedia articles linked above, you may find these sites useful:

Exhaustive tracking and mapping from Johns Hopkins (the GUID gets to reach the JHU data): https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

Comprehensive COVID-19 tracking, with logarithmic graph scales: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

More raw data: https://virusncov.com/

CDC National cases, with a per-day graph down the page: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

New York State COVID-19 info: https://coronavirus.health.ny.gov/home

Perhaps more useful for me than you, but the Dutchess County information: https://www.dutchessny.gov/Departments/DBCH/2019-Novel-Coronavirus.htm

The current recommendation: remain home unless and until you develop COVID-19 symptoms requiring urgent medical attention. Should that happen to me, I fully expect there will be no medical attention to be found and, certainly, all available medical equipment will be oversubscribed.

Speaking strictly as an Olde Farte looking at the data, the future looks downright grim.

On the upside, it’s amazing how little an order to remain home changed my daily routine: so many projects, so little time.

Memo to Self: Wash your hands!