Monthly Aphorism: On Projections

  • Show me an order of magnitude

Father Vaughn, one of the best managers I ever had, evaluated new project proposals on a simple basis: if you couldn’t demonstrate that the result would be ten times better / faster / bigger / smaller than the existing product, then it wasn’t worth starting the project.

He knew that all benefits are overestimated, all problems underestimated, and that if you couldn’t show an overwhelming advantage right from the start, it’d never actually work.

He was right far more often than he was wrong.